Reading Sci-Fi like Vinge or Stross, 20 years ago, it was easy to dismiss talk of the “coming Technological Singularity”.
We were still arguing about mac vs windows.
The hypothetical event where technological growth accelerates beyond human control, producing unpredictable changes in human civilization [1.] was still abstract.
No longer.
The most popular version of the singularity is based on I.J.Good’s Intelligence Explosion model (1965) [2.] which imagined “an upgradable intelligent agent could eventually enter a positive feedback loop of successive self-improvement cycles ”
Such recursively self improving agents are currently in use by OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, XAI.
Let that settle.
The singularity imagined that this positive feedback loop culminates in a powerful superintelligence, far surpassing human intelligence.
It’s no longer if, but when.
The variable is the speed / caution we apply whilst we approach.
[1.] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
[2.] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity#Intelligence_explosion